Nifty Outlook for 28 April 2025

The Nifty 50 is expected to remain under pressure on Monday, 28 April 2025, with a bias towards further decline. Technical indicators, recent price action, and ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest a cautious to bearish near-term outlook.

Key Factors

·         Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing India-Pakistan border tensions and the aftermath of the Kashmir attack have triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to broad-based selling in blue-chip stocks and heightened market volatility.

·         Technical Indicators:

·         The Nifty has entered a correction phase after a strong rally and now appears overstretched

·         The index closed at 24,039.35 on Friday, with immediate support at 23,800 and further support at 23,515

·         If Nifty fails to hold above 23,800, a deeper correction towards 23,500–23,300 is likely.

·         Resistance is seen at 24,150 and 24,365. A sustained move above these levels could reverse the bearish trend, but this is less probable in the immediate term.

·         Market Breadth & Sentiment:

·         The advance-decline ratio was weak, with most sectors and broader indices (midcaps, smallcaps) also declining.

·         IT was the only sector showing relative strength, buoyed by positive global cues

·         Technical analysts note negative divergence in short-term RSI, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside

·         Elliott Wave & Chart Patterns:

·         Expert Elliott Wave analysis indicates Nifty is likely in a downward Wave Z (C) phase, with the bias negative for Monday.

·         A breakdown below 23,800 would confirm the bearish structure, while a move above 24,422 could challenge this view.

Support and Resistance Levels

Level	Importance
24,400–24,500	Major resistance
24,150	Immediate resistance
24,039	Last close
23,900–24,000	Immediate support zone
23,800	Key support ("Agni Pariksha")
23,500–23,300	Next support if 23,800 breaks

Outlook and Strategy

·         Short-Term Bias:
Bearish to cautious. Expect further selling if 23,800 is breached.

·         Trading Approach:
Avoid aggressive long positions until a clear reversal above resistance. Intraday traders may look for shorting opportunities below 23,800 with targets near 23,500–23,300

·         Medium-Term View:
The long-term uptrend remains intact, but the market may consolidate or correct further before resuming its upward trajectory

In summary:
Expect Nifty to test support at 23,800 on 28 April 2025. A break below this level could trigger further downside towards 23,500. Resistance is at 24,150 and 24,400. Monitor geopolitical developments and global cues closely for any reversal signals

I am NOT a SEBI registered advisor or research analyst. Please do not take this as a buy/sell recommendation. This is purely for educational purposes.